Chavez is dead
Finally, the news came. President Hugo Chavez of Venezuela died Tuesday afternoon after a long struggle with cancer. The news has been confirmed by the government (by the vice president Maduro). The nation is under shock and the future remains uncertain.
Since Chavez, who was very keen on power, publicly endorsed the presidency to his vice president (and potential succesor) two months earlier, we were expecting that he will eventually not be able to stay in the office for long.
He had not appeared in public since he returned to Venezuela last month after cancer treatment in Cuba. Maduro was seen quite emotional on Tuesday evening, flanked by main Venezuelan political and military leaders.
In May 2012, he said he had recovered from an unspecified cancer, after both surgery and chemotherapy had apparent success in 2011 and 2012. However, cancer came back and by December 2012, right after winning the elections, he announced he needed further surgery in Cuba. Since then, his vice-president Nicolas Maduro has been in charge. He is the preferred succesor in case the needs arise.
However, the Venezuelan constitution (carta magna) states that in case the president is not able not get in power, a new elections has to come on the way. The question here is: how easy will the current government (lead by Maduro and other Chavistas) agree with this? In case they agree, new elections would be on the way and the main oppositor of the regime would be practically on his way to become the new succesor, creating a new era in the Venezuelan future. Needless to say, it might be too optimistic to say at the moment that new elections are on the way.
The government of Venezuela (Maduro) has been heavily criticized both by national and international entities for not having disclosed enough information about the health condition of Chavez.
- Expect FX to slightly devaluate due to uncertainty.